October 13, 2026
On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1 percent, attributing this to the “resilience” shown by the economy in the face of rising energy costs and various shocks.
In the latest release of the “World Economic Prospects” report, the Fund kept its 2027 growth expectations steady at 3.4 percent, in light of the influence of two major forces that are reshaping the features of the international economy; These are escalating geopolitical tensions and the accelerating boom in artificial intelligence investments.
The report indicated that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the resulting disturbances in energy markets and global trade movement is the “largest negative shock” facing the global economy at the current stage. On the other hand, the massive spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure represents an essential pillar to support the wheel of growth, investment and international trade.
The Fund confirmed that the global economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of recent shocks, supported by the ability of the business sector to adapt to trade disturbances and high energy prices, in addition to the continued momentum in technical investment.
In the same context, the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, Silvana Tenreiro, said: “The global economy has shown resilience, but this resilience is under pressure, with growth risks tending toward the downside.” She added, warning: “The continuation of the war in the Middle East may impose additional pressure on inflation rates and slow the pace of growth, while the deterioration of public financial conditions and the re-evaluation of the profitability of artificial intelligence, in addition to extreme weather phenomena, may further weaken future expectations.”
On a related level, the report explained that the current boom in the artificial intelligence sector has contributed to stimulating global trade and investments, especially in the areas of electronic chips, data centers, and digital infrastructure, which has helped mitigate the repercussions of geopolitical challenges.
However, the International Monetary Fund warned of the uneven distribution of the gains of this boom between countries. The largest returns are concentrated in a limited number of economies linked to technological value chains, specifically the United States and a number of Asian countries that produce semiconductors and advanced technical components.
In this context, the report indicated that China and the United States alone accounted for more than 75 percent of net imports of computing equipment related to artificial intelligence during 2025, while the construction of advanced data centers was limited to a limited number of countries around the world.
