October 9, 2026
The former director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), retired General David Petraeus, expected that by 2030, armies would begin to rely on artificial intelligence officers capable of collecting information and making military decisions with limited or no human intervention, in a radical shift that will redraw the methods of leadership and battle management.
In an interview with investor Finn Murphy on the “Forecast2050” podcast, Petraeus explained that the coming years will witness the emergence of independent systems operating within integrated systems, along with artificial intelligence agents performing the tasks of staff officers to collect and process information without the need for rest. He pointed to the role of “iterative learning” in enabling artificial intelligence models to improve their performance based on previous data and operations, considering that the developments expected within three and a half years will bring about a major shift in the nature of wars.
On a field level, Petraeus expects to use increasing numbers of autonomous unmanned systems in the war in Ukraine before the end of 2026, so that they work in joint coordination to exchange information and move units without direct human intervention. He explained that these technologies will alleviate the restrictions imposed due to the shortage of pilots, warning that “the party that waits for human approval before moving may lose,” given the extreme speed that autonomous systems allow for decision-making.
On the other hand, the idea of artificial intelligence replacing the traditional military chain of command faces continued skepticism. A study published by the Alan Turing Institute last year indicated that artificial intelligence speeds up decision-making but does not replace human judgment and accountability in issues related to life and death. In a related context, last March, Democrats in the US Senate asked Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth for details about a strike that targeted a girls’ school in southern Iran that resulted in child casualties, asking whether artificial intelligence had been used in planning it, in conjunction with reports by “Bloomberg” stating that excessive reliance on artificial intelligence and inaccurate intelligence information had contributed to that strike.
For his part, Commander of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, confirmed the army’s use of artificial intelligence in processing big data, stressing at the same time that the military will continue to make the final decisions about targets and timing of strikes.
Regarding the strategic issue, Petraeus believed that Britain possesses the capabilities to lead a phase of war based on independent systems, thanks to the small size of its forces, the centralization of the Ministry of Defense, and increased investment in unmanned forces, pointing out that the United States still needs institutional changes to move to this model. He concluded by emphasizing the importance of cooperation between Washington and its Western allies to confront the current international challenges, considering the relationship with China to be the most important global challenge that requires protecting common interests.
