October 6, 2026
A state of uncertainty is prevailing over the regional scene in light of the escalation of military and political developments, and the interference of the results of the Israeli and American elections with the paths of confrontation in Yemen and the Iranian file, amid Washington strengthening its military presence in the region. In parallel, Lebanon is anticipating the repercussions of these travails on its internal reality, in conjunction with a remarkable political movement in the relationship between the second and third presidencies.
In this context, writer and political analyst Sarkis Abu Zeid confirmed, in statements to Lebanon Debate, that the region is going through a “very sensitive and narrow” stage, awaiting the clarification of the results of the electoral elections in Israel and the United States, indicating that matters have not yet reached the decisive stage. Abu Zeid pointed out that the Israeli and American sides are dealing with battles with uncertain outcomes with extreme caution, warning of the possibility that Israel will resort to an adventure or a new attempt to change the equations, stressing that we are facing a “waiting phase that may be hot.”
Regarding the military issue, Abu Zeid explained that the American military buildup in the Gulf is linked to the Yemeni file more than any other file. He explained that the first strikes carried out by the Houthis prompted Saudi Arabia to intervene directly and form an alliance to request the help of Washington and its allies with the aim of changing the equation, stressing that the ongoing battles come in an “age of uncertainty,” with a close and inseparable connection between developments in Yemen and the broader regional conflict with Iran.
As for the Lebanese level, Abu Zeid stressed that the repercussions of these developments will depend on the logic of “profit and loss” between the parties to the regional conflict, indicating that any progress by the Saudi allies will reflect negatively on Iran and its allies, pending the crystallization of the final results.
In his reading of the local scene, specifically the rapprochement between Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, Abu Zeid explained that the relationship between the two parties has always been characterized by positivity, indicating that Salam sees in Berri a “more moderate and open to diplomatic solutions” personality, especially in light of developments within the Shiite environment. He stressed that Salam’s repeated visits and appearances on the NBN channel come within the framework of “giving back” to Berri and his bloc for giving the government confidence, as well as reflecting a mutual desire to enhance cooperation and find a diplomatic way out of various crises.
