October 3, 2026

Behind the scenes of the Saudi move: Bab al-Mandab is at the top of the strategic agenda

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is engaged in intense movements on two parallel tracks to contain the ongoing escalation with the Houthi group, which included military preparations for a possible large-scale operation in Yemen, and urgent diplomatic coordination through the “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement,” in conjunction with an Iranian proposal for political communication and escalating field clashes.

In the diplomatic context, Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced the holding of an emergency meeting of the Strategic Political and Defense Committee affiliated with the Mecca Agreement in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, next week. Representatives of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan will participate in the meeting to discuss the recent escalation and attacks against the Kingdom, stressing Islamabad’s full commitment to the terms of joint defense.

Dar explained that the meeting will discuss a proposal submitted by Iran to engage politically with the Houthis to contain the crisis, indicating that the proposal represents an idea that was circulated among foreign ministers and will be discussed in Riyadh as an alternative path to military action. He also pointed out that more than six countries have expressed their desire to join the “Mecca Agreement” signed on August 7, which stipulates that any armed attack on one of the three countries is considered an aggression against all of them, provided that new membership applications will be discussed later after the coalition is fully prepared within about a year.

As for the military level, Reuters quoted six regional and Western officials that Riyadh is studying options for launching an expected military operation in Yemen in the coming weeks. The options presented include a limited attack focusing on the Bab al-Mandab region to regain control of the strategic sea lane, or a broader operation that includes simultaneous attacks on the Marib, Taiz, Al-Jawf and Al-Bayda fronts.

According to the same sources, Yemeni forces supervised by Riyadh will take over the land side with Saudi air support, with the possibility of mobilizing more than 100,000 Yemeni fighters, depending on the size of the approved operation. The potential plans aim to reverse the recent Houthi gains on the Yemeni coast and their control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait, at a time when the official authorities in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, the coalition armies, and the Houthis did not respond to requests for comment.

Regarding the nature of external support for the operations, the sources confirmed that the United States provides intelligence information and advice to support Saudi air operations, while regional and European countries provide defense assistance without expecting direct participation of Riyadh’s allied forces in the hostilities.

On the ground, the Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen announced, on Friday, the interception and destruction of three ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis towards the city of Khamis Mushait, southern Saudi Arabia, without recording injuries or damage. On the other hand, the Houthi military spokesman, Yahya Saree, claimed that Saudi Arabia launched 94 air strikes and missile strikes within 24 hours targeting several Yemeni governorates, calling for civilian casualties, allegations that could not be independently verified.