
The regional escalation witnessed by the Middle East at this stage cannot be seen as a transient event or as a summer cloud that will expire with the end of the war in Gaza.
The United States of America’s attempts to end this war, whether through political pressures or through regional and international mediations, do not mean at all that the region is coming to a stage of calm and stability. On the contrary, there are many indications that after the ceasefire in Gaza may be more dangerous and more sensitive, and that the region may enter a new stage of escalation, Lebanon is one of its most prominent squares.
The possibility of the escalation of the escalation to the Lebanese scene remains strongly, despite everyone’s awareness, led by Israel, to the size of the risks that may result in that. The opening of the Lebanon Front means exposing the government of Benjamin Netanyahu to a very difficult test, as any wide confrontation there may threaten everything that Tel Aviv considers “gains” achieved in the past months, whether at the field or political level. The risk is that if the party is able to surprise Israel through large qualitative operations or by restoring its military and logistical capabilities, then he succeeded in providing painful losses in the land field, the whole scene will change, and Tel Aviv may find itself in front of a new reality that is not calculated by the results.
But all of this remains linked to a decisive factor: the position on Iran. If Israel and the United States do not succeed in making a fatal blow to Iran, or in causing great harm to its political system and its internal structure, then any confrontation in Lebanon or others will remain limited to the impact, and may even lead to counterproductive results. As the steadfastness of Tehran in the face of pressure, and its ability to continue to support its allies and expand their influence, will rearrange the papers in the region and change the balance of power in a fundamental way. Therefore, the continuation of the escalation and its going towards drawing new equations will put the region in front of two possibilities that have no third: the first, that Iran and its allies succeed, and in the forefront of them H. Hezbollah in Lebanon, in the steadfastness and achievement of field achievements And political, which will restore the strategic balance in the region and put an end to the unilateral American hegemony. As for the second possibility, it is that these forces are subjected to a major defeat that leads to the collapse of their system and influence, which opens the door to a long stage of absolute American superiority, which may extend for future decades.
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