Caroline Akum
The Middle East
Lebanon and the Lebanese are living in a stage of fear and anticipation of what will carry the coming days after the Israeli escalation of Lebanon, which was represented on Thursday evening in warnings and a widespread attack on a number of towns in the south, with the continued violations that targeted a car on Friday in the town of Tabnit near the government hospital, and killed a person and wounded 11 others, and a truck to transport water in the area between supporters and rice of rice, where he was reported to kill a person, as was targeted A car near the town of Harouf in the district of Nabatieh.
Although the Lebanese have lived since the ceasefire agreement last November, a state of instability as a result of the mobile raids in Lebanon, although it is mainly concentrated between the south and the Bekaa, they feel today that the war indicators are increasing day by day, although it is difficult to resolve this issue, which is related to a number of factors that change and vary and pace between day to day.
Fears of escalation are growing
“There is no doubt that fears of the escalation have returned to grow up with the recent Israeli escalation on southern Lebanon,” according to ministerial sources told Asharq Al -Awsat, noting that most of the places that were targeted in Thursday raids are located in the south of Litani; That is, where the existence and spread of the Lebanese army, and therefore, “the Israeli was supposed to be, if it is correct to say that there is an infrastructure for (Hezbollah), that he informs the ceasefire monitoring committee, to inform the Lebanese army, which is the task of examining the sites according to what is stipulated in the agreement, but this did not happen, and we did not know the reason for this escalation that was accompanied by a psychological war.” From here, the sources indicate that “Lebanon will raise this issue at the meeting of the Monitoring Committee, which is supposed to be held next Sunday in the presence of the American delegate Morgan Ortigos, publicly we get clear answers.”
An ongoing strategy between practical and psychological goals
The same concerns are expressed by retired Brigadier General Hassan Johnny and the head of the Middle East and the Gulf Center for Military Analysis – Antega, Riad Kahwaji; They consider that the escalation is possible, although it cannot be resolved.
Johnny told Asharq Al -Awsat: “These violations that vary their intensity from day to day come within the Israel strategy that it has adopted since the agreement last November that it did not adhere to, but it is remarkable that the different pattern of violations and attacks on Thursday from what it was in the previous period, by returning to warnings and evictions.” From here, Johnny adds: “The dimension and the psychological impact was required by Israel on the same amount of the practical impact of these air strikes if there are actually practical targets as they claim.” He explains: “There is no doubt that these warnings reflect a negative climate that leads to instability, especially in the regions of the south and the Bekaa where the Israeli wants to raise terror on a large area.”
A standing reality until the completion of the Hezbollah weapon
While Kahwaji considers that the possibility of escalation remains possible, it is likely in a statement to Asharq Al -Awsat that the current reality remains until the closure of the Hezbollah file and the completion of its withdrawal of its weapon, which is something that Lebanon cannot retract with all the pressures it is exposed to from the international community.
He says: “The possibility of escalation is no doubt that it is possible, especially if (Hezbollah) is forbidden to cooperate with the army, put obstacles, and take escalatory steps to prevent the army from withdrawing weapons.” Who gives it the right to target any party moves until the issue of exclusive weapons and the withdrawal of the party’s weapon is completed.
Between the political movement and the field escalation
This same strategy is about Johnny, considering that what is happening falls in the context of the strategy of repeated attacks, but it confirms that it cannot be separated from the “political moment that we live”, in terms of government decisions related to the exclusive weapon, the Lebanese army’s plan to withdraw the Hezbollah weapon, and the party’s rejection of this matter; As “everything issued by the Israeli is taken as a reaction to all these developments related to (American paper) and its primary goal, which is the weapon of Hezbollah, and on all the political climate in Lebanon.”
Hence, he considers that “it is not possible to resolve what the situation will be in the next stage, and whether it will record a military escalation.” Because there is an overlap between the American diplomatic movement and the military field work, and therefore we cannot read far, but every day on its day.
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