Global oil surplus will increase faster than expected

The International Energy Agency announced today, Thursday, that the global supply of oil will increase at a faster pace than previous estimates during the year 2025, driven by OPEC decision+ increased production and expansion of supplies from outside the group, with the possibility of the surplus growth in 2026.

The monthly agency report stated that the supply will increase 2.7 million barrels per day this year, compared to 2.5 million barrels per day in its previous expectations, expecting another increase by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026.
The agency explained that OPEC+ pumped more oil after finishing the second phase of production reduction faster than expected, which contributed to the acceleration of supply growth compared to demand, despite raising the expectations of global demand growth this year to 740 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 60 thousand barrels per day from previous estimates.
The markets are affected by different factors, including the possibility of supplies to decline as a result of new sanctions on Russia and Iran, in exchange for increasing the production of OPEC+, which may lead to the rise in global stocks. The agency also expected that the global supply would exceed the demand by about 3.3 million barrels per day in 2026, compared to an expected surplus of 3 million barrels per day last month, driven by increasing production from outside OPEC+ and limited expansion of demand. (Arabic)