Massran are racing in Lebanon and the most famous full of surprises and mutual pressures

Lebanon today lives on the impact of two tracks racing in drawing its political and security future. The first track is the apparent escalation that is waving on the horizon, as Hizbulza’s position appears decisive in rejecting any attempt to go towards the option of withdrawing weapons, especially if the government turns into the executive framework in this file. This position is associated with increasing Saudi and American pressure, as the two parties insist that any stability in Lebanon cannot be achieved without radically handling the weapon file, which makes the confrontation open on wide possibilities.

On the other hand, the second track is the course of a possible settlement between Iran and the United States. Although public indicators on the progress of this path are still absent, some experts believe that the settlement may be closer to what many expect. American conviction is directed that any withdrawal or reducing the American role in the region after drawing the features of the settlement cannot take place without the involvement of Iran as a basic partner in the new arrangements, which puts Lebanon at the heart of these accounts. But this image is not simple. Saudi Arabia, which aspires to be the most prominent player in Lebanon and the region after the decline in the Syrian role, does not seem ready to accept with a major American -Iranian settlement that may reduce its influence. Hence, Riyadh is pressing towards the consecration of its political, economic and regional presence in a way that contradicts any settlement formula that puts Tehran in an advanced position. Besides, there are internal Lebanese parties opposed to the party that does not see any settlement between Washington and Tehran is an interest for it, but rather that such a deal will give the party additional power and prove the equation of weapons that have been working for years to weaken it. These constitute another pressure factor that increases the complexity of the internal scene, as they fear that any regional settlement will be translated at the expense of their local balances. What makes the next stage more sensitive is the overlap of these paths and the intertwining of regional and international accounts with Lebanese internal balances. Lebanon is not just a side arena, but a point of intersection for conflicting interests between major powers. Possible escalation on the one hand, and possible settlement on the other hand, puts the country in front of an existential test that will continue at least until the end of the current year, as it is likely that the coming months are full of surprises and mutual pressures. In this sense, Lebanon today seems stuck between two options: an open confrontation that may restore the clockwise, or a major settlement It may put the country on a different path, but not necessarily more stable. Certainly, the next stage will not be easy, and that Lebanon will remain hostage to this race between escalation and settlement until the features of the final balances are clear.