Israeli military and diplomatic sources revealed a change in Israeli assessments towards the new Iranian leadership, considering it more stringent and less predictable compared to the previous leadership, at a time when they linked any progress in the US-Iranian negotiations to the possibility of developments on the Lebanese scene.
According to a report published by Al-Monitor, Israeli sources believe that the current Iranian leadership believes that it has achieved a political victory over both the United States and Israel, which, in their estimation, makes the task of deterring Tehran more complex.
The report indicated that any progress in the understandings between Washington and Tehran may be directly reflected in Lebanon, citing an Israeli diplomatic source as saying that US President Donald Trump may put pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to withdraw Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, as part of a broader regional deal with Iran.
The source added that Israel’s approval of the Lebanese-Israeli framework that was signed in Washington on June 26 came, according to his estimation, to allow Netanyahu to present any future withdrawal from southern Lebanon as an “Israeli diplomatic achievement,” and not as a result of American pressure.
The report pointed out that, according to the Israeli vision, the US-Iranian negotiations are no longer focused on the nuclear program, ballistic missiles, or support for armed groups, but rather have become primarily focused on ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
An Israeli diplomatic source considered that this shift represents, from his point of view, a strategic defeat for Israel, because the goals of the war that were proposed at its beginning differ from the nature of the current negotiations.
The report also quoted Israeli officials as believing that Israel emerged from the war in a more complex strategic situation compared to what it was before its outbreak.
He also pointed out that there is a trend within the Israeli establishment that prefers the failure of the US-Iranian negotiations, believing that this might push the Trump administration to return to the military option or re-impose a complete naval blockade and tighten sanctions on Iran, instead of reaching a political settlement.
The report concluded by noting that Netanyahu, after failing to achieve what he described as “complete victory” over Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah, seeks to convince Israeli public opinion that he has succeeded in protecting Israel from an existential threat, and that he remains the guarantor of preventing Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon in the future.
These estimates come at a time when the region is witnessing intense diplomatic activity between the United States and Iran following the recent military confrontation, amid attempts to reach understandings that address multiple security and regional files. The Lebanese file also remains present in any potential regional arrangements, in light of the continuation of international contacts regarding the implementation of security understandings in the south, and pushing Israel to withdraw from the areas it still controls, in parallel with efforts to stabilize stability and prevent renewed escalation on the southern Lebanese border.
