In a report by the “Bar Char” website, he translated: Lebanon24 “I consider that the decline in Iranian-American tension is not the reason. The war is heading to subside, the agreement has been signed, and oil has returned to flow. But none of that is the reason for the decline in metals, and the parts that are still unresolved in the Iran story do not change the picture, because all possible paths from here indicate additional pressure on metals. Gold and silver are declining because the two forces that have pushed this market over the past period are now moving in the same direction and at the same time.”
The door to interest was opened again and quickly
The report said: “A week ago, with the peace agreement in place and oil declining from its high levels, the market returned to pricing a softer stance from the Federal Reserve. The probability of raising interest before the end of the year had fallen to about 57 percent. But that only lasted about a week. Today, the market is pricing the probability of raising interest at about 90 percent, while both Deutsche Bank and Bank of America expect the move to come early, perhaps next September. The Fed’s preferred inflation index will be released on Thursday, amid expectations It rose to about 4.1 percent, compared to 3.8 percent. As for the dollar, it ended last week at a new high level above 100, and the two decisive factors here are the accumulated inflation and the labor market. The Swiss agreement did not change anything in either of them, and that is why the short hope for a more accommodating stance from the Federal Reserve only lasted one week.
Aren’t metals a safe haven?
The report added: “The question asked today is: If gold and silver are collapsing along with the stock market, aren’t they a safe haven when stocks decline? The answer is important: No, not in a selling wave like this. For the second day in a row, a strong selling wave is hitting the most inflated parts of the market. The artificial intelligence deal is cracking. Chip stocks are declining strongly after a sharp decline in memory stocks abroad, and after one of the leading companies in the sector failed to provide reassuring forecasts.”
He continued: “Also, the listing of SpaceX, the largest in history two weeks ago, declined for three consecutive sessions, losing more than $600 billion of its value, and falling below the opening price of the first day.”
He concluded: “When the most speculative deals in the market begin to unravel in this way, their impact does not remain limited. Investors sell what they can to collect liquidity and reduce risks, while the strong dollar increases pressure on everything that is priced in the US currency.”
