Iran is preparing to move from the phase of unity imposed by the war to a phase of peace that may bring with it internal divisions and heavy economic and social challenges, from hyperinflation and economic contraction estimated at about 10%, to electricity outages and demands to stop persecuting opponents.
The Guardian newspaper said that the discussion within the Iranian regime regarding the country’s future after the war has begun to gradually emerge, at a time when Tehran’s leaders are seeking to ensure political survival in the peace phase, as they did during the war.
Media and discussion platforms inside Iran are witnessing debate about the next path, between calls for more openness, and voices that see the necessity of investing in what they consider to be breaking the image of a “weak Iran” in the West, and focusing on development and strengthening national independence.
According to the newspaper, a large part of the future of the Iranian economy will depend on the willingness of US President Donald Trump to ease sanctions and free frozen Iranian assets. However, Iranian economists believe that any possible relief will only compensate for a limited portion of losses estimated at about $270 billion, affecting infrastructure, schools, energy, steel, and housing.
Sociology professor Fouad Habibi warned that the causes of the bloody protests last January are still present, and have even been exacerbated by the war, with living standards declining, prices rising, and at least two million people losing their jobs directly or indirectly due to Internet restrictions.
He pointed out that the current social cohesion is linked to the presence of a common external threat, and may decline with the disappearance of this factor, which opens the door to broader internal disputes.
According to The Guardian, the Iranian economy is entering the post-war phase amidst the highest rates of food inflation since World War II, as annual food inflation in May reached about 130%, while meat and poultry price inflation reached 176%.
Health experts also warned of high rates of malnutrition, osteoporosis, and delayed growth in children, as a result of many families being forced to give up dairy products due to high prices.
In this context, former Iranian Minister of Communications Mohammad Jahromi wrote that “the next bomb that Trump and Netanyahu may throw may not be of gunpowder, but of inflation,” considering that the next battlefield will be citizens’ tables, housing rents, and living conditions.
For his part, Iranian President Masoud Pazashkian continues to warn of anticipated economic difficulties, calling for maintaining social cohesion in the next stage.
In the energy sector, the Ministry of Energy denied reports of power outages scheduled for two hours a day starting next month, despite the damage to the infrastructure. But the head of the Energy Committee of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, Arash Najafi, called on citizens to prepare for daily power outages in order to maintain the continuity of production.
The newspaper pointed out that signs of popular dissatisfaction began to appear with the gradual easing of restrictions on the Internet, a step that sparked controversy that prompted conservative representatives to seek to remove the Minister of Communications.
Observers believe that the real gain that Tehran hopes to achieve after the war is not limited to political or nuclear settlements, but rather includes getting rid of stifling economic restrictions. However, expectations indicate that any potential financial breakthrough will remain limited compared to the extent of the damage to the Iranian economy. (Arabic)
