Mary Jo Matta – Mtv
Yesterday, the Lebanese woke up to news indicating “the end of the war.” The US State Department announced that Lebanon and Israel agreed to a ceasefire after the June 2 and 3 negotiating sessions. President Joseph Aoun also announced that this agreement will enter into force 24 hours after its final approval.
The Lebanese state described what happened as an achievement. For its part, the Israeli government confirmed that the negotiations with Lebanon in Washington, which agreed to “remove Hezbollah from the equation,” are an unprecedented achievement… Hezbollah rejected the agreement, as did the Revolutionary Guard, which described what happened as “unacceptable.” However, the main question here lies: How serious is what happened? Will both parties comply?
“The path of negotiations will not be advanced or delayed, but it is only to break taboos,” says military expert, retired Brigadier General Marcel Balukji, adding that “what the Lebanese state has done is in line with Hezbollah’s priority in terms of demanding a comprehensive ceasefire.”
Balukji explains, in an interview with MTV, that “Hezbollah categorically rejected the agreement because it gives freedom of movement to Israel, especially since it is trying to circumvent the state through a plan it is implementing in Qatar. In addition, the equation of the suburb versus northern Israel served it in terms of its inability to confront a new wave of displacement and also provided a good climate for Iran to conclude its agreement.” He continues: “The Israeli army will not withdraw, and the clashes will continue even if the fighting is reduced from daily fighting to rounds. As for the United States of America, the agreement contributed to achieving its primary goal, which is not to disarm Hezbollah, but to protect Israel’s security.”
The agreement essentially stipulated that both parties agreed to establish what is known as the “Pilot Zone,” in which the Lebanese Armed Forces would assume control of the lands. Hence, Balukji points out that “the establishment of these areas is intended to pave the way for the Israeli withdrawal after the army deploys and works to remove Hezbollah. However, the army alone will not be the solution, but all that can happen is to pave the way for international accompaniment later,” noting that “the main problem lies in implementation, and failure to implement the 1701 Agreement could be the best evidence that the state did not and does not have the mechanism.”
He concludes: “The only thing that can lead to a ceasefire in Lebanon is the American-Iranian agreement, especially since Hezbollah is linked regionally, and therefore we can only wait for the regional climate to change.”
