Lebanon is located between the jaws of the pliers, on the side of Israel, which is in its attacks on it, and on the other hand, the permanent intimidation of the Takfiri groups, in light of an volatile American speech aimed at first and finally the Israeli interest and the implementation of the normalization project while eliminating any resistance focus of it.
From this standpoint, the writer and political analyst Ibrahim Bayram did not find in the positions of the American delegate Thomas Barrak to Lebanon any change, as he announced on his recent visit that there are no guarantees to stop the Israeli attacks, and acknowledged the failure of the ceasefire agreement, meaning that America is unable to deter Israel, so it cannot provide guarantees to Lebanon. With Bayram’s appreciation, America has moved to a new stage, whether in Syria or Lebanon, and will not be accepted after today with “no war, no ladder” agreements, but rather a complete normalization that ends the Arab -Israeli conflict, and permanently ends every hostile force for Israel or can pose a threat to it in the next stage.
In this context, Bayram believes that the “Flood of Al -Aqsa” persuaded the Israeli, and thus the American, that the danger is permanent if there remains a warrior or fighter foci of Israel, whether in Palestine, Syria or Lebanon. He reveals that the recent events of Syria did not come from a vacuum, as they followed the Syrian rejection of the principle of normalization, and insisted on the principle of “no war or peace”, so the Syrian President Ahmed al -Shara was punished with the events of As -Suwayda, pointing to a prominent matter, which is that Barak today demands that Syria be held accountable from Lebanon, which means a new part of the pressure.
And he stresses that the United States is currently pressing Syria and Lebanon, especially as it frankly says that it abandoned the ceasefire agreement and will not give guarantees, as if it is putting Lebanon in front of the winds of new danger. It appears that it is in the context of dealing harderly, whether with Hamas, Hezbollah or the rule in Syria, which did not submit during the two meetings in the Emirates and Baku for American requests to normalize, which is rejected by the American, especially after the “precious gifts” that the Syrian regime enticed, to recognize it and lift it from the list of terrorism and lift obstacles from Syria, in the hope that it will be reached with the ceasefire agreement.
However, it seems that the Sharia is not able to follow the normalization agreement that Israel aspires to, and he sees that the words of Barak are soft in the form, but in the content he promised to escalate more and leave Lebanon at the mercy of the Israel That was its godfather.
Bayram reads, in the words of Barak, a promise to escalate more than the Israeli side, although this escalation has existed since the ceasefire, but the question is, will it expand into a invasion or not? This requires research, without excluding it to be a possible and possible matter, but it carries a lot of risks. Is Israel, who are mired in Gaza, the West Bank and South Syria, are ready to send its soldiers to invade Lebanon? It is considered that this is a weak possibility, as long as Israel is satisfied with the current situation of raids and assassinations, in contrast, the Lebanese response is fixed, so it cannot be discussed in the issue of disarmament without the Israeli and the United States committed, as the sponsor of the agreement, with the initial steps, by stopping the aggression, and the policy of biting Lebanese lands, and returning the prisoners, so it is not possible to ask Hezbollah to hand over weapons or adhere to a time deadline to hand it over, As long as the attacks are continuing, so it became clear that the response is fixed and not moving.
Bayram stresses that Lebanon is the issue of arms is an internal affair, and it is also a Barak recognition, so the position of the Lebanese state is based on the implementation of Israel, and therefore Lebanon implements what it is, and this is also the position of Hezbollah, as it will not deliver weapons as long as there is an Israeli danger, but as for the intimidation of the takfiri groups through Syria, it believes that the waving of this danger is always present, but the regime in Syria is steeped, either in Syria. Or in the south, it will not be done, but it is a possibility, meaning that it is a pressure and intimidation weapon that is used in time.
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