Although the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel was extended for an additional 45 days under American auspices, the escalating field scene in the south suggests that the region is heading towards a more complex phase, amid continuing Israeli raids, military incursions, and repeated warnings, in parallel with political and security negotiations being conducted in Washington under the pressure of field developments.
In this context, military expert, retired Brigadier General Marcel Baloukji, in an interview with Lebanon Debate, considered that Israel does not seem satisfied with the current reality, noting that the United States is trying to manage a delicate balance between consolidating the truce and preventing Hezbollah from exploiting it to reorganize its ranks and enhance its field and political presence.
Balukji explained that “from the Israeli point of view, the truce gives Hezbollah an opportunity to improve its situation and reimpose its priorities on the Lebanese arena,” considering that this matter prompts Israel to continue military and security pressure in the south, through repeated raids and targeting.
He pointed out that the current escalation is not separate from the negotiating process, but rather is used as a field pressure tool to improve the conditions for negotiation, explaining that “any negotiations in this type of conflict do not proceed without escalation on the ground.”
He believed that Israel considers that the Lebanese state is not yet able to fully implement the obligations required of it, so there is talk of broader international monitoring mechanisms, which may include American officers or even Arab and foreign forces to accompany the field in the south.
Regarding the return of Israeli forces to the vicinity of the Litani, Balukji considered that this development has clear military dimensions, explaining that Israel is working to prepare new sites and develop its field deployment to allow it to move quickly in any future confrontation.
He pointed out that units such as “Gulani” carry out advanced reconnaissance and penetration operations into sensitive areas, in preparation for the possibility of expanding the scope of military operations in the future if a political decision is taken to do so.
Despite repeated talk about the “Lebanese quagmire,” Balukji stressed that Israel does not consider itself militarily stuck yet, but rather believes that American political pressures are delaying the full implementation of some of its goals, whether at the level of the Lebanese front or the broader regional arrangements.
He added that Israel seeks to establish new security equations in the south, in parallel with the negotiations, considering that the current stage is a stage of “military accompaniment for negotiations,” where the field escalation is being used as a direct pressure card on Lebanon and Hezbollah.
He concluded by saying that the future of the situation in the south is still open to wide possibilities, between continuing limited escalation or expanding towards a larger confrontation, especially since any final agreement continues to collide with highly sensitive political, military and regional complexities.
