“Lebanon Debate” – Basma Atwi
During his visit to the Syrian capital, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is scheduled to discuss vital files for the Lebanese economy, most notably border control, crossings, and bilateral cooperation between the two countries, in addition to the prisoner file. The measures imposed by the Syrian authorities on the movement of Lebanese trucks, commercial exchange, and land transit witnessed in the past months have inflicted a huge cost on the Lebanese economy, amounting to tens of millions of dollars so far, and may rise to hundreds of millions of dollars annually if the restrictions become structural and continuous, due to the loss of export markets, the high cost of trade, and the decline in economic activity related to transportation, agriculture, and industry. If we add the additional fees, delays, damage, loss of a portion of exports, and damage to the transportation sector, we are talking about an annual cost to the Lebanese economy that may realistically range between $50 million as a minimum, to more than $150 million annually in the most pessimistic scenarios, and this number may rise further if restrictions expand or transit to the Gulf is further disrupted.
What sectors are affected?
If the Syrian border measures negatively affect the productive sectors in Lebanon on more than one level, this translates into:
First – hitting Lebanese land exports: Syria is the main land corridor for Lebanon’s exports to Jordan, the Gulf, and Iraq. When restrictions are imposed on the entry of Lebanese trucks or they are required to unload the cargo and transfer it to Syrian trucks, the logistical cost rises, delivery is delayed, and Lebanese goods lose their competitiveness. Reports indicate that about 500 Lebanese trucks cross Syria daily under normal circumstances, which demonstrates the extent of Lebanese dependence on this artery.
Secondly – directly increasing the cost of transportation: Any measure of the type of additional transportation allowance, transit and customs fees, unloading and reloading, or delay at the border inevitably leads to damage to a part of the agricultural and food goods, and practically means an increase in the cost of the Lebanese product, and this is reflected on the exporter, the farmer, the industrialist, and the Lebanese consumer himself.
Third: Losses of the Lebanese land transport sector: The Lebanese truck sector is one of the most affected. When transit traffic declines, hundreds of trucks stop working or operate at low capacity, which means a loss of income for drivers, a decline in the business of transport companies, a decrease in demand for fuel and transportation-related services, and more disguised unemployment.
Fourth – Additional pressure on the dollar and the trade balance: Lebanon imports much more than it exports. If exports are hampered, less dollars enter the country, pressure on the exchange rate increases, and the trade gap deepens.
Losses in numbers!
In terms of numbers, the cost of the Syrian border obstacles on the Lebanese economy can be determined through truck transit fees, which is the most direct burden. At a previous stage, some Lebanese trucks were paying approximately $2,000 in fees and traffic allowances per trip, before they were later reduced to around $300 per truck, according to what was reported by transportation sector sources.
In March 2025, Syria adopted a new fee of 2 percent according to a formula linked to the weight of the truck and the distance traveled, which means that the cost becomes variable depending on the load and the route. If we assume that only 200 Lebanese trucks cross daily, and an average additional burden of $300 per truck, the cost will be $60,000 daily, $1.8 million monthly, and $21.6 million annually. If the actual burden rises to $500-700 between fees and delays, the cost may jump to $40-50 million annually.
Delays at the border also harm the agricultural sector in particular, as refrigerators loaded with vegetables, fruits, and fresh products incur additional cooling and waiting costs. Each day of delay may add $200 to $500 to the cost of operating the truck (diesel, refrigeration, driver wages, partial damage). If 100 trucks break down weekly at this rate, the cost would be $20,000 to $50,000 weekly and between $1 million to $2.6 million annually in direct operating losses, without counting the loss of the goods themselves. When part of the agricultural load is damaged, the loss of one refrigerator may reach several thousand dollars, depending on the type of product.
The largest impact is indirect. By the end of August 2025, the volume of Lebanese land exports via Syria to Iraq and Jordan amounted to about 67 million dollars (29 million to Iraq and 38 million to Jordan). If the obstacles lead to a decline in this movement by 10 percent, the loss will be about $6.7 million in exports. If the movement declines by 15 percent, the loss will be about $13.4 million, and if it declines by 20 percent, it will be approximately $20 million. If the work of shipping companies, drivers, maintenance services, fuel, and customs clearance is disrupted or declined, each stopped truck means a daily operational loss that may range between 150 and 400 dollars in the Lebanese market. If 300 trucks break down for 10 days, for example, the loss ranges from 450,000 to 1.2 million dollars in direct losses.
