In its latest report on the outlook for commodity markets, the bank explained that prices may rise further if tensions escalate in the region and supply disruptions continue for a longer period, according to what Reuters reported.
The basic scenario assumes a gradual return of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to levels close to pre-war levels by October, but he warned that the risks are clearly tilted towards higher prices.
The bank expects commodity prices in general to rise by 16% in 2026, driven by the rise of energy and fertilizers, in addition to a number of major metals recording record levels.
Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday, as efforts to end the war between the United States and Iran faltered, and the almost complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued, keeping energy supplies, fertilizers and other goods from the Middle East out of the reach of global buyers.
The World Bank confirmed that the attacks on energy infrastructure and the disruption of shipping in the strait, which before the war carried about 35% of seaborne crude oil trade, caused the largest shock to oil supplies ever.
The report indicated that Brent crude prices were more than 50% higher in mid-April compared to the beginning of the year. It is expected that the average price of Brent will reach $86 per barrel in 2026, compared to $69 in 2025.
The bank also expected that Brent’s average would reach $115 per barrel this year if vital oil and gas facilities are exposed to further damage and the recovery of exports is delayed.
World Bank chief economist Indermeet Gill said that the war is hitting the global economy in stages, starting with a rise in energy prices, then food, and leading to inflation, which pushes interest rates to rise and makes debts more expensive.
He warned that the shock would be more severe for poor and developing countries burdened by debt.
The report also expected fertilizer prices to rise by 31% in 2026, driven by a 60% increase in urea prices, which could exacerbate pressures on food supplies, farmers’ income, and crop productivity.
According to World Food Program estimates, about 45 million additional people may face severe food insecurity this year if the war continues.
The World Bank also expected average inflation in developing economies to reach 5.1% in 2026, compared to 4.7% last year, and it may rise to 5.8% if the war continues for a longer period. (Arabic)
