Attention in Israel is focused on a critical juncture, as the debate has shifted from the mere possibility of a new war breaking out to determining its date and size, in light of a state of confusion prevailing in the military establishment as a result of the mixed statements made by US President Donald Trump.
According to a report published by journalist Avi Ashkenazi in the Hebrew newspaper “Maariv,” assessments in Israel indicate that the question is no longer “if the war will be renewed,” but rather “when and at what size,” while army officers describe the situation as “very complex,” as a result of the absence of a clear vision of political and military trends.
This assessment stems from a worrying conclusion within Israel, which is that it finds itself today in a worse situation than expected, and less stable than it was on February 27, whether on the Lebanese front or in the Gaza Strip, where the field equations witnessed fundamental changes.
Until recently, before Operation “Assad’s Roar,” the Israeli army was carrying out daily operations to impose its control inside Lebanese territory, but recent days have witnessed a radical shift, as Hezbollah began targeting Israeli forces by launching rockets, mortar shells, and drones. In contrast, the Israeli army faces restrictions imposed by the political leadership, and the actual decision regarding the shooting policy in Lebanon is now managed from the White House in Washington.
The data shows that Hezbollah has violated the ceasefire seven times since the eve of Independence Day, by launching missile and drone attacks against Israeli army forces in the “yellow line” area inside Lebanon, reflecting a gradual field escalation on the southern front.
At the same time, Israeli army officers confirm that the fight against Iran has achieved notable tactical gains, but key objectives remain outstanding, especially regarding the ballistic missile system. They believe that Iran continues to manage the battlefields through its proxies, starting from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen, which, according to their estimates, requires a strategic repositioning in dealing with it.
In this context, officers believe that Israel and the United States will be forced to return to fighting, not only against Iran, but also against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, in light of the dramatic changes that have occurred in the security situation on the three fronts in recent days.
In the Gaza Strip, estimates indicate a noticeable escalation in the activity of Hamas, which has intensified its clashes with Israeli forces in the “yellow line” area, in parallel with accelerated efforts to re-establish its control over the land, militarily and among the population. From the beginning of the week until Thursday morning, a sharp increase in the number of clashes was recorded, with elements being sent to the contact lines to directly challenge Israeli forces.
Estimates within the Israeli military establishment agree that the containment policy is no longer useful, whether on the near fronts or in confronting Iran, emphasizing that the key to the decision is in the hands of US President Donald Trump. However, the dilemma, according to Israeli officers, lies in the blatant contradiction in Trump’s positions, as one of them says: “You read a tweet of his in which he adopts a combative stance, and two minutes later you hear him in an interview saying the exact opposite. This is a very complicated situation. You do not know where we are heading and what the direction is.”
In light of these facts, the conviction has become firmly established within Israel that renewing the war is a matter of time, with the expectation of the nature of the American decision. Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz expressed this trend clearly, stressing that his country “is waiting for the green light from the United States,” indicating that the goal is to complete the targeting of the Iranian leadership, including the “Khamenei dynasty,” in addition to striking energy and electricity facilities and destroying the economic infrastructure.
Katz concluded by noting that any future attack “will be different and deadly,” and will target “the most painful places,” in continuation of the blows received by the Iranian regime, which aim, as he put it, “to shake its foundations and bring it down.”
