The Wall Street Journal reported that there are increasing risks facing the negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, especially with the effort to hold direct talks under the auspices of US President Donald Trump, and the exclusion of “Hezbollah” from this process.
The newspaper explained that the proposal to hold a meeting in the White House between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun represents an important development, but at the same time it reveals a significant difference in views, with no Lebanese agreement on the nature and scope of participation.
She also pointed out that this path excludes a key party to the conflict, making any potential agreement weak and susceptible to collapse, especially in light of previous experiences that failed due to the party not being included in the understandings.
She explained that the temporary truce, which lasted 10 days, was intended to open the way for broader negotiations, including indirect channels with Iran, while Israel sees this as an opportunity to weaken Hezbollah, with there being talk about the possibility of reaching a “historic” agreement.
On the other hand, the report quoted analysts warning that excluding the party might put Lebanon facing two difficult choices: either a dangerous internal confrontation, or accepting its continued influence, which would hinder any real agreement.
The report also pointed out that there are doubts within the Israeli security establishment about the Lebanese army’s ability to disarm the party, in light of continuing field tensions.
The newspaper concluded that any peace path that does not take into account the role of “Hezbollah” and the influence of Iran will remain vulnerable to collapse, and may lead to a new escalation, whether on the border or inside Lebanon.
These assessments come during a sensitive phase after the announcement of a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, which was mediated and under international pressure, in an attempt to open the way to a political settlement.
However, the situation on the ground remains fragile, with continuing violations and tensions, in addition to internal political complexities related to the balance of power and the role of the actors in any settlement.
This path coincides with broader negotiations in the region, especially between the United States and Iran, which makes the Lebanese file part of a complex regional equation, in which political and security calculations are intertwined.
