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With the acceleration of events related to the regional ceasefire agreement, it appears that the clash between the United States and Iran has entered a phase of temporary calm. This comes after weeks that witnessed an unprecedented military escalation, which almost pushed the region into a comprehensive confrontation. This path reflected delicate balances that existed as a result of field realities and political and economic pressures, which raised many questions about the strength of this truce and its direct effects on the Lebanese arena, in light of the continuing field and political complications without a clear solution.
In this context, retired Brigadier General Charbel Abu Zeid believes, in a statement to, that what is currently happening “is nothing more than a temporary ceasefire,” stressing that “all parties are still adhering to their conditions, which makes the agreement fragile and subject to collapse at any moment.”
He added: “The next two weeks will be decisive, in light of a delicate phase witnessing intense negotiations, and in the event that a settlement is not reached, the possibility of a return of confrontations remains strong.”
Looking at the situation on the ground, Abu Zeid explained that “the indicators do not suggest any radical shift, as some fronts are still witnessing tension, and the military activity has not stopped completely,” noting that “the scene also remains linked to the course of pressures and developments related to the Israeli positions.”
Regarding southern Lebanon, he stressed that “Israel is still deployed in a number of border areas and has not withdrawn from any point yet, which means that the ceasefire has not been translated into practice on the ground.”
He added, “The Lebanese army has not yet received a signal to deploy or return, as a result of the continued Israeli military presence inside Lebanese territory, which keeps the field situation suspended.”
He continued, saying: “The confrontation did not stop completely, but rather entered a phase of relative calm, while basic areas are still under Israeli control, especially in Bint Jbeil and a number of border villages, in addition to the extension of this presence in the western sector all the way to the Bayada area.”
In conclusion, Abu Zeid pointed out that “the current scene brings to mind what happened on November 27, 2024, when tension continued despite the announcement of a ceasefire, which reinforces doubts about the ability of the current truce to hold.”
