A field reading of developments in the situation in southern Lebanon shows that the map of clashes is divided into several basic axes. The Israeli advance is concentrated in the eastern and western sectors, with movements recorded in the towns of Khiam, Shama, Al-Bayada, and Al-Antra, all the way to the vicinity of the Litani River, which still constitutes a central target in Israeli military plans. This is confirmed by the data displayed by the interactive map of the “Live U Map” website, which is constantly updated and documents the progress of Israeli forces on several axes inside Lebanese territory.
In the eastern sector, data indicate that the Israeli army was able to advance significantly in the Khiam area, taking advantage of the complex nature of the roads. However, this progress is not considered final consolidation, but rather temporary control that can be changed, in the absence of a fixed position as a result of the constant pressure from Hezbollah. It also advanced on the Qantara Line, where it reached the town, which is one of the closest points to the Litani River, as it is only about one kilometer away from it, making it a sensitive strategic point in the course of operations.
As for the western sector, the town of Shamaa witnessed remarkable movements, as the Israeli army was able to advance there, in the context of what experts describe as an attempt to open an axis towards the sea road, starting from Al-Bayyada and Shamaa. However, previous experience in the town, where Israeli forces were subjected to severe attacks and were forced to withdraw, indicates the difficulty of consolidating this progress, amid expectations that the same mistakes will not be repeated, or that they will seek to establish fortified points with limited objectives.
On the other hand, Israeli bombing continues at a high rate along the southern Litani, with raids targeting everything that moves in the area. Meanwhile, the villages north of the Litani, including Nabatieh and its surroundings, were not spared from the attacks, an indication of the expansion of the scope of operations and not being limited to direct lines of engagement.
In this context, the military expert, retired Brigadier General Hisham Jaber, explained in an interview that “the Israeli military leadership is adopting the method of slow progress, ‘step by step,’ in contrast to the political leadership, which was demanding quick access to the Litani River and complete control over its south,” noting that “this discrepancy explains the lack of significant progress despite the passage of about 33 or 34 days since the start of operations.”
Jaber added, “The Israeli army was not able to consolidate its position on a large scale, despite some breakthroughs, as the nature of the ongoing confrontation allows it to enter some towns, but without the ability to remain there for long periods,” pointing out that “what happened in Shamaa previously, where the forces entered and suffered losses before they withdrew, reflects the nature of this clash.”
He pointed out that “Israel is trying to take advantage of the partial control in Khiam and Qantara to gradually advance towards the Litani, but this path is still fraught with dangers,” stressing that “the ultimate goal remains to reach the river, but in a gradual manner to avoid major losses.”
Jaber concluded by noting that “the field situation is still open to all possibilities, in light of the continued intense bombing and repositioning of forces, as Israel intends to re-target any movements, while it continues to constantly re-evaluate its operational plans.”
