In the midst of the accelerating field events on the southern front, the features of military operations and their distribution on multiple axes are gradually becoming clear, amid increasing evidence indicating Israeli efforts to confirm new facts on the ground and link progress to broader plans that may include land and sea, in parallel with mounting military reinforcements and noticeable logistical movements that indicate the possibility of expanding the scope of the confrontation in the coming period.
These data are consolidated in what is shown in the interactive map published by the global “Live U Map” website, which is updated regularly, as it monitors the progress of Israeli forces on several axes inside Lebanese territory, which reveals the nature of the complex operations and their field sequence.
In this context, the military expert, retired Brigadier General Marcel Baloukji, provides a detailed analysis of the field scene, noting in an interview that “the operations are distributed over several sectors, with the western sector witnessing a noticeable Israeli advance, with the control of Al-Bayada Hill and the high sites surrounding it, all the way to the vicinity of the international forces barracks and the outskirts of Naqoura, without entering it yet. He attributes this progress to field bypass operations that extended to the vicinity of Hammoud, which allowed the installation of advanced control points.” Within this axis.”
As for the central sector, Balukji explains that “the pace of advance is still measured, as the forces focus on stabilizing the lines of contact without a direct push forward, within the framework of an approach based on circumvention rather than incursion.” He points out “the possibility of carrying out a cordon maneuver towards Bint Jbeil, without entering it directly, with the aim of reaching the Litani River through unconventional routes.”
On the other hand, the eastern sector is witnessing qualitative progress, as the Asar areas have been reached and controlled from the lower side, all the way to the Litani River, in addition to controlling Qantara, Deir Saryan, and Taybeh within three parallel operational paths. Meanwhile, progress is still halted at Wadi Saluki on the right side of the front.
Balukji believes that “these data reflect the most important developments in the operations, with the likelihood of their development in the coming hours, especially in light of the preparations for the introduction of special forces and the opening of new paths of progress.”
He confirms that “the most prominent achievement so far is reaching the Litani River in the eastern sector, at an estimated distance of 5 to 6 kilometers from the border, which constitutes a strategic focal point in the context of operations.”
In a more general analysis, Balukji reveals “indicators of additional escalation, including the possibility of carrying out a naval landing, in parallel with strengthening military deployment by sending several combat teams to the field, including the 91st, 36th, and 162nd divisions that actually entered the attack, in addition to another division that was stationed in the Upper Galilee and was involved in operations inside Lebanese territory, which raises the number of participating divisions to four, with the 98th Division expected to join soon, bringing the number to five divisions.”
He points out that “this mobilization reflects a clear trend towards expanding the attack to include the three sectors simultaneously, in preparation for achieving broader progress on the ground and imposing new field equations.”
At the level of strategic objectives, Balukji believes that the trend is moving towards consolidating progress through the establishment of three layers of fortifications: the first on the second line extending between Marjayoun, Bint Jbeil and the Litani River, and it may turn into a completely closed area; The second is between Litani and Zahrani, where restrictions on the entry of security forces may be imposed; The third is between Al-Zahrani and Al-Awli, and is allocated for heavy equipment and supply and catering lines.
Baloukji concludes, “These measures aim to consolidate field control and stabilize the facts on the ground, without yet meaning a transition to the stage of a full incursion into the depths, which leaves the scene open to the possibilities of additional escalation in the next stage.”
