Avi Issakharov, an analyst specializing in Arab affairs at the Israeli Walla website, believes that any serious Israeli plan to dismantle Hezbollah will not be a quick operation, but may require a wide war that includes controlling large areas of Lebanese territory, and extending for several months or even years.
In an article entitled “The Lebanese Quagmire – 2026 Edition,” Issakharov explained that the Israeli army has achieved some field successes in the recent period, including the liquidation of the leader of the “Nasr Unit” in Hezbollah, in addition to other assassinations targeting leaders in the party and members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Quds Force who provide it with support.
But the writer warned that Hezbollah’s launching of missiles towards Tel Aviv and the central regions, the targeting of the satellite station in the Elah Valley, and the intense bombing of northern Israel are all indicators that indicate that the war may be long and arduous, and that achieving victory in it will not be quick or through air strikes only.
He pointed out that Hezbollah’s intervention in the ongoing war between Israel and Iran was initially considered by some senior Israeli officers to be a “strategic ambush” in which the party fell, which provided Israel with an opportunity to try to eliminate it on the northern front. However, the first days of fighting showed that this goal would not be easy.
“Issakharov” stated that the party, despite its weakness compared to its situation in August 2024 after the assassination of its leaders and the destruction of part of its missile arsenal, still possesses great military capabilities that turned the northern front into a main arena for targeting the Israeli depth, and the confrontation with it has become no less important than the war with Iran.
He also believed that the party’s decision to join the war on Iran’s side may seem reckless, but it becomes understandable given the party’s connection to Iranian support since its founding in 1982.
He added that Hezbollah’s participation in the war imposes great challenges on Israel, as the army and intelligence services are forced to distribute resources between two fronts at the same time, namely Iran and Lebanon, which puts enormous pressure on military capabilities.
He stressed that any Israeli operation aimed at dismantling Hezbollah may mean a real war that includes the occupation of large areas of Lebanon, and may continue for a long time, with no guarantees that this war will achieve the goal of dismantling the party, as the experience of the war against Hamas in Gaza demonstrated.
He also warned that this war could cause heavy human losses on both sides, in addition to increasing international sympathy for Hezbollah.
Regarding the party’s status within Lebanon, he indicated that its political influence has declined since the assassination of its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, on September 27, 2024, explaining that the current Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, does not possess the status or charisma that Nasrallah enjoyed.
However, Issacharov concluded that Hezbollah is still an influential organization that possesses real military capabilities, as its possession of between 10,000 and 15,000 missiles is still capable of causing serious damage to Israel.
He concluded by noting that Hezbollah is an ideological organization that does not fear human casualties or destruction resulting from war, and may be willing to risk igniting all of Lebanon if it sees this as a way to strengthen its position within the country.
