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With the launch of Israeli-American military operations against Iran this morning, intense anticipation prevails in Lebanon, accompanied by growing concern that this regional confrontation will extend to Lebanese territory, especially with talk circulating about the possibility of Hezbollah getting involved in the conflict. All possibilities remain in light of the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of this war, whether in the short or long term.
In this context, retired pilot Brigadier General Bassam Yassin told Reuters that the Iranian response has already begun. But the greatest interest currently is focused on the situation in Lebanon if Hezbollah decides to enter the war. He added: “So far, there does not seem to be an intention to engage, but everything depends on developments in events in Iran. In the event that the regime falls or the Iranian Supreme Leader, Mr. Ali Khamenei, is directly targeted, no one can predict the reaction.”
Yassin also pointed out that “all of Lebanon is living in a state of anticipation, hoping that it will not be a party to any possible confrontation,” stressing that “the current war is not quickly resolved, but rather carries indications that it may be long-term.”
He explained, “The entire force is not consumed from day one. Rather, operations are conducted at a deliberate and relatively slow pace, with a focus on hitting carefully specific targets. The most important thing that distinguishes this type of war is the strategy adopted to manage operations and achieve interim goals without a comprehensive depletion of force, with a focus on Toma Hawk missiles in air operations.”
Regarding Hezbollah’s position, Yassin said: “No one can predict what might happen. All we hope is that Lebanon stays away from the repercussions of this war, because it has no interest in it and no ability to bear its costs. However, the course of events raises concern, especially with fears of an expansion of the confrontation, especially in light of Israeli reinforcements on the border and the call-up of reserve forces.”
Yassin warned that “the Israeli side may exploit the current circumstance to impose new field events in the south, including the areas south of the Litani,” indicating that the current picture is blurry and the possible scenarios are multiple, and it is not possible to conclusively predict what the coming days may bring.
