The electoral process in Lebanon is witnessing a complex path full of legal and political challenges. Various problems have emerged in the decisions, decrees, and circulars issued, in addition to objections to implementation mechanisms, all the way to the controversy surrounding expatriate voting. However, there appears to be significant progress in gradually removing these obstacles, as if there is an insistence on holding the elections on the specified date, and that the current efforts are aimed only at overcoming the difficulties.
In this context, the opinion of the Legislation and Issues Authority in the Ministry of Justice was of great importance. The Commission gave the Minister of the Interior a legal basis to adopt an expatriate voting mechanism for 128 representatives, as happened in the previous elections, instead of allocating only six seats to them. Although this opinion is not binding as a judicial ruling, it provides sufficient legal cover to move forward with the electoral process. This means that the minister can now hold elections on the basis of expatriates’ votes in their original constituencies, which removes one of the most important problems that have emerged in the recent period.
But are all obstacles over? The answer is no. One problem still remains, which is the possibility of any affected party resorting to the State Shura Council to challenge the decisions and decrees of the Ministry of Interior, with a request to suspend implementation. If this request is accepted, Lebanon may enter a legal process that obstructs the elections. If the request is rejected, the last internal obstacles will have been removed, and holding elections on the specified date will become almost certain at the local level.
However, politics is no less complex than the law. Despite talk of irregularities and loopholes, and despite the legal debates, it seems that the general desire within the authority is moving towards holding elections regardless of objections. It appears that the political decision was taken before the legal debate, and not the other way around.
In addition, there is another, more sensitive factor, which is the return of Prime Minister Saad Hariri to the political arena. He stated that he would determine his position when the election date was announced, and hinted at the possibility of participating. Although the issue appears internal on its face, it is in fact linked to delicate regional calculations, especially in light of the increasing tension between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in different regions. Although Lebanon has so far remained outside the direct conflict, the severe attack launched by Al-Hadath channel on Hariri, accusing him – through Ahmed Hariri – of allying with Hezbollah, indicates that the Lebanese arena is not immune from this tension.
If Hariri decides to run in the elections, these elections may turn into an arena of regional political conflict, and the external factor will then become a decisive element in determining the fate of the elections. On the internal level, the political forces are preparing for the electoral battle, but with caution, because any change in the regional climate may change the calculations.
In secret, a large number of representatives prefer to postpone the elections. The reason for this is that some of them see their seats under threat, while others do not want to spend large sums of money on electoral campaigns, especially since the results in some electoral districts are almost certain. The question they quietly ask is: What is the point of a costly battle if the balance of power, especially with regard to Shiite seats, is almost fixed? For them, elections seem more like a formality than an opportunity for real change.
Thus, Lebanon faces a clear equation: On the internal level, the path is moving towards fixing the election date. On the external level, any change in regional calculations could change everything. Between the internal decision and the external anticipation, the parliamentary elections remain a new test of the state’s ability to hold the elections on time… or postpone them again under political pressure.
