– Muhammad Al-Madani
President Nabih Berri’s announcement of his candidacy for the parliamentary elections, as the first official candidate, is considered a very carefully considered political step. This move carries an essential message that the elections will be held in accordance with the law currently in force, without allowing any amendments that might rearrange the cards at the last minute. Since Lebanon often witnesses surprises that precede the entitlements, Berri wanted to put an end to doubts and set the parameters of the game from the beginning.
Adhering to the current law, especially with regard to the expatriate ballot file and their representation among the 128 representatives, represents a political decision that reflects an accurate assessment of the balance of power. Any change in this timing would have opened a wide political market, and perhaps brought Lebanon into a constitutional controversy that would have disrupted the electoral process. Berri, with his long experience in managing balances, realizes that procedural stability is an integral part of political stability, and that changing the rules months before elections encourages conflicts.
In essence, the early announcement of the candidacy represents an affirmation of Berri’s national role. The man who has headed the House of Representatives since 1992 does not act like an ordinary candidate seeking to win a seat, but rather as a parliamentary authority who considers himself a guardian of the regime’s rhythm. As he grows older, he sends a message opposite to any interpretations and analyses, saying, “I am still in the heart of the game, and I still hold its keys.”
On the political level, this concentration gives the Shiite dualism internal stability, and sends a message of reassurance to its mass base that the equation has not changed. But at the same time, he sends a signal to other forces: “Do not bet on a change in the rules or on sudden settlements in the electoral law. The game will be played as it is, and whoever wants a confrontation should prepare within this framework.”
But does this mean that Berry will be the “big winner”? A realistic reading suggests that maintaining current law preserves existing balances, reducing the possibility of major surprises. In a proportional system governed by quotients and alliances, those who know the rules of the game well have a clear advantage. Berri, with his experience and alliances, is proficient in engineering regulations and managing entitlements, making him comfortable on the battlefield.
In conclusion, early candidacy is not just a declaration of intention, but rather a drawing of a road map. The law remains the same, the political reference is fixed, and the elections will be held within familiar equations. Between those waiting for change and those betting on continuity, Berri chose to announce early that the battle was decided by its rules before it began, and whoever wanted to amend them should do so after the due date, not before.
