Concern is rising in Israel about Turkish moves inside Syria, amid warnings that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking to establish a deeper military presence that may limit the freedom of action of the Israeli Air Force in the future, while an Israeli expert went further, warning that Turkish ambition may later extend to Lebanon and Gaza, calling on Israel to act now to prevent Syria from turning into what he described as a “Turkish colony.”
In an interview with Eryl Segal and Eyal Berkowitz on Radio 103FM, today, Wednesday, Professor Uzi Rabi, from the Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, discussed the recent Israeli attack in Syria, Turkey’s ambitions in the region, and the ongoing shifts in the balance of power in the Middle East.
Rabi said: “Until yesterday, Israel was busy preventing Iran from operating its agents in Syria. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Syria was no longer an Iranian stronghold, but quite the opposite.”
He added: “Whoever is trying to enter Syria and put a very deep foot in it is Erdogan. Erdogan has great ambition and many dreams of empire, and if he is entering an airport located 70 kilometers from the Syrian-Turkish border in Idlib, this is a matter that calls for attention.”
He continued: “We will ultimately have to send a signal to the Middle East that Syria will not turn into a Turkish colony.”
According to Rabi, Israeli concern is mainly focused on the possibility that Türkiye will deploy military capabilities inside Syrian territory that could limit the activity of the Israeli Air Force.
He said: “Turkey wants to control an airport located in northern Syria. Control does not mean sending a plane to Syria and rehabilitating the Syrian air force. Rather, it means placing air defense batteries there against Israeli aircraft, and then you reduce Israel’s freedom of air action in the Middle East.”
Rabi believed that Israel must act at an early stage to prevent the deepening of the Turkish military presence, considering that the latest Israeli strike came at the right time.
He said: “This operation came at the right time, because the bull must be stopped while it is trampling. Erdogan is a very dangerous personality, and he will swallow more and more, and do not be surprised if he reaches Lebanon and also reaches Gaza.”
He added: “Israel will always remain on alert so as not to allow Turkey to reduce Israel’s freedom of action in the Middle East space.”
Rabi moved on to talk about the changes taking place in the alliance system in the region and the decline in Middle Eastern countries’ confidence in Washington, saying: “No one buys the promises of the United States anymore, and each party is concerned with itself, and therefore we are witnessing a multiplicity of alliances.”
He asked: “If Saudi Arabia enters into an alliance with Pakistan and Turkey, will the Abraham Accords end? In my opinion, this is not true.”
He explained that, unlike in the past, countries in the region today feel a high degree of insecurity, which prompts them to work on more than one track at the same time.
He said: “Countries feel very insecure, so they tend to do this and that and that as well. Israel must be smart, understand what is going on, be proactive and take the initiative. We are not talking about peace, but about normalization wherever possible.”
Rabi also touched on Hamas and Hezbollah, considering that the cessation of fighting allows the two organizations to re-strengthen their capabilities.
He said: “Hamas, like Hezbollah, grows stronger in the moment when there is not an intense war, and this is a given.”
He added: “These are resistance organizations, and there is no room or possibility here to reach a settlement with them, because they do not want you.”
Regarding the Gaza Strip, Rabi said: “In Gaza, it is forbidden to return even one gram of land or one millimeter of it if we do not see proof that Hamas has been disarmed.”
He continued: “Hamas will not disarm. It recruits children at the age of 16, and it can bring rockets and weapons.”
Thus, Rabi places the growing Turkish presence in Syria within a broader Israeli security equation that does not stop at the Syrian border, as he believes that Ankara’s movements may turn into a factor that changes the balance of power and freedom of action in the region, while also bringing Lebanon and Gaza into the circle of ambitions that he warns against.
